Polit.Uz

Project “Rogun” represents a hydropower station (HPS) that is under construction on the Vakhsh River as an upper stage of the Vakhsh cascade. The project was initially designed by “Sredazgidroproekt” institute (Tashkent), while at the current stage Russian “Hydroproject” Institute has taken the charge for its design.

According to the plan “Rogun” project represents a hydropower station built onto a 335 meter high dam, the walls of which will be constructed by rock and mud filling method. Presumably, after the completion the dam “Rogun” HPS will become the tallest one in the world.

The complex of “Rogun” HPS consists of a 335 meter tall dam constructed from local material by rock and mud filling method, construction and maintenance tunnels, underground HPS compartments, including a computer room (220 meters in length and 22 meters in width, with a maximum height of 78 meters) and transformer converters chamber (200x20x40 meters).

The projected capacity of HPS is – 3600 MW, average annual production – 13.1 billion kWh of electricity.

It is planned to install six radial-axis generating units with a capacity of 600 MW in the building of HPS.

According to engineers, the dam should create a major “Rogun” water reservoir with a total volume of 13.3 km² and a useful volume of 10.3 km² of water. Reservoir would be used both for power production and irrigation purposes. Construction of HPS is planned to carry out in several stages, the output capacity of the first stage should be 400 MW with an average annual capacity of 5 billion kWh.

Initially the experts estimated the total cost of the HPS construction at $ 2.2 billion, and the cost of the first stage – $ 590 million.

HPS project has been criticized because of its location in the high seismic zone, which is prone to landslides and mudflows, as well as the availability under the dam of “Ionahshsk” tectonic fault line, which is filled with salt rocks.

The designers of the HPS are asserting of the safety of the dam – specifically they are assuring that the structure of the dam is earthquake resistant and stressing that special measures have been planned to prevent the wash-out of the salt rocks on its floor.

The project is also criticized because of the fears that it would lead to a serious reduction of the Amu Darya flow. According to designers, in the case of the completion of HPS dam it would take from 7 to 12 years to fill the Rogun reservoirs with water from the Vaksh river.

In other words, the construction of HPS will not only lead to a reduction in the amount and the quality of water in the lower reaches of the Amu Darya River, but also to flooding of some parts of Afghanistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan in the case of strong seismic waves.

Meanwhile, in 2004 Government of Tajikistan and the Russian company “Rusal” signed an agreement on the completion of HPS.

Rusal had prepared the feasibility study of the project, and carried out a series of works on the HPS site. Yet, the parties failed to agree on some fundamental issues of the project, specifically on the height of the dam, as well as its type (Rusal offered the option of 285 meters tall dam with concrete walls), and in September 2007 Tajikistan had formally terminated the agreement with Rusal.

Works on the completion of the HPS resumed in July 2008, but this time it had to be financed from the budget of Tajikistan only. Subsequently, the project had regularly experienced financing problems.

In order to raise funds to start full-scale reconstruction of “Rogun” Government of Tajikistan launched a campaign to sell the shares of “Rogun” to general public. During the campaign, there were numerous cases of forced sale of shares to the public. In his annual address to the nation in 2010 the President of the Republic of Tajikistan E.Rakhmonov expressed his concern about the numerous complaints and statements by people on the actions and misdemeanors, as well as the shameful attitude of regional administrations, law enforcement officials, health workers and others, and instructed the relevant parties to strictly forbid forced sale of shares of the HPS facility.

Meanwhile, according to some reports, as of April 1, 2010 the government of Tajikistan was able to collect $ 182 million. By June, 2010 this amount reached $187 million only.

At the same time, some Tajik experts and economists believe that having collected funds from people for the construction of Rogun and refusing to deposit this capital with Tajik banks that offer a record-low interest rates (0,6 %), the government of Tajikistan is actually driving himself into a corner. Some observers argue that the obvious way out would be the attraction of foreign banks to the process of privatization of Rogun, but the government refuses to do so. Instead it conducted third round of biddings of shares of Rogun among Tajik banks, the unofficial results of with showed no interest from their part.

From its part International Monetary Fund said in April that the collection of funds for the construction of Rogun has negative effects on macroeconomic and social indicators of the country. According to some reports, the IMF has put very strict conditions on the Tajik government. Specifically, if the Government of Tajikistan will not accept the conditions of IMF, it will suspend its programs in Tajikistan that totals to $200 million annually. These programs include the EU, WB and ADB sponsored budgetary support program and the balance of payments support of IMF.

Another problem is the demand put forward by the international community to conduct the feasibility study and carry out socio-environmental assessment of the project Rogun at the first stage.

As stated Mr. M.Aminov, director of the group to reduce electricity losses of the open stock enterprise company “Barki Tajik”, in order to conduct the feasibility study and environmental review of the Rogun project another seven independent experts should be attracted in addition to the WB experts.

Tajik official said that the independent experts, including engineers in the field of geology, experts on large dams, ecologists, and social scientists will be attracted by the Government of Tajikistan. According to the Memorandum of Understanding which was signed between the Government of Tajikistan and the World Bank, if the examination results will have a positive character for Tajikistan, the World Bank will assist in raising funds for the continued construction of the Rogun hydropower plant.

Thus, the construction of Rogun represents a matter of principle for Tajikistan, especially on the background of energy crisis in winter 2008 to 2009. In this regard, the Government of Tajikistan is betting  on Rogun and other HPS as an opportunity for a breakthrough in economic development and its transformation into a leading supplier of electricity to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. But given the circumstances, experts are expressing serious doubt as to whether some large-scale hydropower projects, in particular Rogun, will be built at all.

Qahramon Asronov, RPF expert